Less likely since Russia requires these systems for its own defense, but could transfer to message increasing cooperation
-0.021095
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
44%
S-400 or S-500 missile system
15%
Su-35 fighter jets
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
3%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
30%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
67%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
No incentive to reduce stockpile
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
53%
Yes
47%
No
Likely to get a ceasefire, unlikely to last for 30 days
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 12, 2024 06:29PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
60%
Yes
Feb 12, 2024 to Aug 12, 2024
40%
No
Feb 12, 2024 to Aug 12, 2024
LH more likely to launch and assume they can de-escalate through negotiations the longer the conflict drags on
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Yes
85%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Risks to shipments outweigh potential upside. Shippers can also pass increased costs to consumers.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Ceasefire or Huthi surrender could open up sea lines of communication again.
Files
Anything can happen