3 percent chance he dies
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No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jun 15, 2024 01:41PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
Yes
Mar 15, 2024 to Mar 15, 2025
97%
No
Mar 15, 2024 to Mar 15, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Yes
Consistent autocracy and no desire to step down from power, plus an overall appearance of strength as projected post thwarting of the Wagner coup.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
continued tension in the region
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
Consistent autocracy and no desire to step down from power, plus an overall appearance of strength as projected post thwarting of the Wagner coup.
Files
more likely if hezbollah takes significant action against Israel, currently.most resources and attention will be focused on Hamas and international reputation