Gr33nD

Iran is playing a long game and a war in the near future does not suite their longer term objectives and is something they will very likely seek to avoid for now.

As they are highly unlikely to start a war the best chance of them becoming involved in one is if it is declared on them. While Iran does have many enemies there are only three that could remotely be conceived as taking that path in the near future: Israel, the US and Saudi Arabia.

Israel already has a full plate dealing with Iran's proxies and simply doesn't have the resources for a direct confrontation with a country that well equipped, at least not in the near future. The US has a president that's made it a point to avoid getting pulled deeper into the region and even if Trump is elected who may have a slightly higher appetite he has made isolationism part of his brand and wouldn't have enough time to put together an attack plan in the few months he would have before this question is resolved. Lastly Saudi Arabia is chiefly concerned with domestic and economic development at the moment and also lacks the military resources to confidently start a war with Iran.

While it is theoretically possible some combination of those countries or all three could form a military alliance against Iran the current climate in the region makes that extremely unlikely as well.

Putin has an iron grip on the Russian government and has installed cronies at the highest level of government who are all submissive to him and likely fear him given his penchant for assassinating people he sees as a problem. Even the head of Wagner who had an army behind him backed down from his coup attempt shortly after initiating it and his failure and subsequent assassination(not proven but likely) sent a clear message to other influential individuals in Putin's orbit. While the war may eventually result in his ouster it's highly unlikely to happen in the next few months.

Iran has previously been shown to be a relatively soft target for cyberattacks as many have been successfully carried out against them in the past and there are several geopolitical adversaries that were already incentivized to regularly carry out such attacks even before Iran started escalating regional tensions.

The most prominent of those adversaries is Israel which is acutely aware of Iran's role in the 10/7 terrorist attack. Given the current situation in the middle east it would be impossible for Israel to launch any kind of physical retaliatory strikes making cyberattacks and direct sabotage their only current options for retaliation and are two options Israel has become very adept at. Israel likely also already had various plans in place for cyberattacks against Iran they intended for the future that could be sped up and implemented sooner.

Iran has little to no reason to back out of the deal any time soon as it has been completely one-sided in their favor. They constantly flout their own obligations while benefiting from the other signatories fulfilling theirs. Even if sanctions were reimposed, having the deal in place is a form of protection for them from the other signatories taking a deeper role in the region as the deal was a means for those countries to not have to get more involved there, something none want to do and something Iran wants even less.

There is also the current chaos in the middle east which was fomented by Iran but seems to have reached a level they are comfortable with as there have been signals that they are urging restraint to a number of their proxies specifically to avoid escalating things further. Dropping out of the deal would be a bombshell decision that would create even more uncertainty in the region and raise the chaos level beyond what Iran sees as advantageous.

Given the list of countries that are signatories there are really only a few that would realistically have a chance of taking that action: France, Germany, the UK and the EU. The other signatories are Iran and allies of Iran so there is no chance any of them take that step.

As far as the ones that could theoretically do it all are countries that were big proponents of the deal originally and have shown over time since the deal was implemented that they care deeply about making the deal work regardless of how committed Iran is and have repeatedly ignored or downplayed Iranian breaches. Not only that but given the current instability in the middle east it's highly unlikely any want to make a move that could inflame tensions further.

Lastly Iran is aware that they were recently caught in violation and will certainly take steps to prevent further scrutiny either by taking more steps to obscure their operations or by slowing their development in the short term.

Microsoft has been happily operating in China for years and likely has little interest in winding down their investments there barring a major event. While it's true some companies have been scaling back their Chinese operations or pulling out of the country entirely Microsoft has shown little to no inclination to do that so far.

They also have a clear interest in maintaining the lab as it gives them access to Chinese AI research and expertise they likely wouldn't have access to otherwise which in and of itself would make keeping the lab open worth it not to mention closing the lab would create friction with the Chinese government and could lead to knock-on consequences for their broader business in the country.

There are several reasons China would not attack Taiwan in that timeframe. First they have seen what's happened with Russia and Ukraine and are likely much more warry of an invasion than they would have been before seeing what can happen in a similar situation.

Second they understand that the US currently has a national security interest in protecting Taiwan due to their outsized importance for chip manufacturing however they also know that the US and other countries are actively investing in their own chip manufacturing specifically to reduce reliance on Taiwan so it makes strategic sense for China to wait for Taiwan to become less important to the rest of the world.

Lastly they are currently dealing with the worst economic conditions the country has seen in decades and the communist party has tied part of its legitimacy to what had been a consistently booming economy so the communist party is likely much more concerned with addressing that than starting a war under less than ideal conditions.