Forecasted Questions
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 01, 2024 04:31PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Oct 01, 2024 04:31PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14% | 5% | +9% | 0% |
| No | 86% | 95% | -9% | 0% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 01, 2024 04:34PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Oct 01, 2024 04:34PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 88% | Oct 1, 2024 to Oct 1, 2025 | Jan 1, 2025 | 23% | +65% | +12% |
| No | 12% | Oct 1, 2024 to Oct 1, 2025 | Jan 1, 2025 | 77% | -65% | -12% |