Although possible it is less likely that it will resume simply due to the short time scale. If the question was for say June or July the % would be 70% for the positive.
0.178463
Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
0
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New Prediction
Will BP or Shell resume oil shipments through the Red Sea before 31 March 2024?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
30%
(-30%)
Yes
70%
(+30%)
No
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Yes
40%
No
Why do you think you're right?
point form:
BP or Shell have approximately 100 vessels that transit the area and are more than likely to re-start shipments due to the increased security provided by Western aligned naval forces (most notably US forces).
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Why might you be wrong?
Restarting the shipping routes may still not occur due to the companies not having transiting vessels near the Sea and may wait until a closer time to restart the route.
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New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
A number of factors greatly diminishes the probability that Putin will Cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 may 2024. Currently the most weighted factor I would use for this particular answer is strictly mechanical in that it is a too short a time period between this prediction (Feb 13 to May 1), coupled with the lack of a strong opposition forces that can have him removed from power. It is not 0% due to the very slight possibility of natural death - which I would put more at a .1% chance. With a longer time period other factors would weigh and change the probability more.
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