Forecasted Questions
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 15, 2024 10:05PM UTC
(8 months ago)
Feb 15, 2024 10:05PM UTC
(8 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 5% | +5% | -1% |
| No | 90% | 95% | -5% | +1% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 04:37AM UTC
(5 days ago)
Sep 27, 2024 04:37AM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | 21% | -6% | -4% |
| No | 85% | 79% | +6% | +4% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 04:43AM UTC
(5 days ago)
Sep 27, 2024 04:43AM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 9% | Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025 | Oct 27, 2024 | 0% | +9% | +0% |
| No | 91% | Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025 | Oct 27, 2024 | 100% | -9% | +0% |
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 04:46AM UTC
(5 days ago)
Sep 27, 2024 04:46AM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 97% | 96% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 3% | 4% | -1% | +0% |