Could happen, but counterproductive for Hezbollah.
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New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 14, 2024 04:10AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
Yes
Feb 14, 2024 to Mar 14, 2024
90%
No
Feb 14, 2024 to Mar 14, 2024
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 14, 2024 04:08AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
40%
Yes
Feb 14, 2024 to Aug 14, 2024
60%
No
Feb 14, 2024 to Aug 14, 2024
The region is a tinderbox, but Hezbollah will act only with Iran's approval. This would seriously exacerbate likelihood of a regional war.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Too soon.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
No obvious reason to question his health. Little indigenous incentive to depose.
Files
Too costly for Iran.