Jesse-Scott

Jesse Scott
About:
Show more

-0.052255

Relative Brier Score

2

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 2 2 2
Comments 0 0 0 0 0
Questions Forecasted 0 0 2 2 2
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 0
 Definitions
New Prediction
Jesse-Scott
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Mar 14, 2024 03:09PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
63%
Yes
Feb 14, 2024 to Aug 14, 2024
37%
No
Feb 14, 2024 to Aug 14, 2024

Hezbollah has launched missiles into Isreal since the invasion of Gaza. Their current support from the Iranian government is likely to be escalated due to the rhetoric that the government has shown. Additionally, there is a possibility that, with the increased focus that Isreali Defense force has in Southern Gaza, that Hezbollah will see an opportunity here.

Files
jrl
made a comment:
A small missile struck the town of Safed overnight. That's over 10km from the border by my measure. I've asked the admins for clarification on this and the related "will war break out" question.
Files
New Badge
Jesse-Scott
earned a new badge:

My First Question

Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Badge
Jesse-Scott
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction

Considering the high threshold for large-scale revolution in Russia, and the international community's reticence to act directly upon Russia, there is next to no chance, witholding an extreme change of circumstances, that Putin will not be the president at this time.

Files
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username