Increasing hostility between the US and China over technology as well as decreased economic outlook in Choma
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0
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0
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No forecasts in the past 3 months
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(-3%)
Yes
92%
(+3%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
11%
Yes
89%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Microsoft likely faces political pressure from the US government, souring relationships with the CCP and worsening market headwinds in the Chinese market.
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Why might you be wrong?
There may be local factors I have no information on regarding things like talent cultivation, desire not to worsen relationships with the CCP or cost of relocation. I would probably up my estimate if the time horizon was longer
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New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
Putin's regime has lasted years, and seems unlikely to collapse in such a short time window. The Russian economy doesn't seem to be in danger of intense contraction and no viable military or domestic unrest threat seem likely to create conditions conducive to regime change.
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Why do you think you're right?
I believe Volodymyr Zelensky to be fairly believable, and presuming that given the general narrative of Ukraine running out of ammunition is true, or that Russia believes it, they may feel pressured to act before Western aide can be mobilized to rearm Ukrainian armed forces.
Why might you be wrong?
I lack detailed information about the situation on the ground, the status of either sides military capabilities, status of foreign aide to Ukraine, and no particular skills in predicting military conflicts