Imagine Putin will remain president so long as there is active combat with Ukraine.
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Maybe the Russian people (or more likely, the Russian oligarchs) are fed up; seems like the time for that to matter must have passed by now though.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on May 15, 2024 01:45AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
Yes
Feb 15, 2024 to Feb 15, 2025
90%
No
Feb 15, 2024 to Feb 15, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Does not seem very likely, but hard to discount the possibility with active combat seeming to move into Lebanon.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Israel, U.S., Iran or an Iranian-proxy commit an act that causes broader regional conflict or destabilization.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
Making my first forecast!
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Why do you think you're right?
China may want to, but imagine they'd at least wait to see how the U.S. presidential election turns out (and allow a transition to take place if they feel a Trump administration would be more permissive).
Why might you be wrong?
Congress is more or less deadlocked and unable to provide financial assistance to either Ukraine or Israel; hard to imagine that changing even if China invaded Taiwan, and that might actually make the current moment the most advantageous time to do so.
There's also the possibility that something dramatic takes place (Joe Biden passes away; on-going conflicts spill out into regional wars requiring U.S. intervention in the Middle East or Eastern Europe; all of the above or something else entirely) that China would perceive that as a moment opportunity in midst of crises.