FAlx

I've identified 3 events which play a role in determining this outcome.

1. Putin might lose the presidential election in march 2024

2. Putin might die

3. Putin might be removed from power through a coup.

Odds for 1.

Russian elections are widely believed to be rigged. This would a priori place a low value on anyone other than Mr. Putin winning the elections.

Russian opinion polls show a strong preference for Mr Putin. None of the contending candidates poll higher than 10%. There's more respondents answering they'll abstain than answering they're undecided. Candidates that might receive a protest vote have been barred from participating in the elections, which reduce the likelihood of a runoff election.

The odds of even reaching a run off election are low. This has only historically happend once in seven elections. (14%). Before that election the opinion polls showed a much higher percentage of undecided voters and a constant shift in the leading candidate.

Even so the sitting candidate won that election. Solely based on polling numbers I estimate that the odds of reaching a run off election are also 14%, under the assumption that first round elections are conducted fairly.

If a run off election is required I'm about 95% confident that the rigged election system in Russia will make sure Putin is elected. Russian polling stations have been producing statistically dubious numbers for years, and holding elections in occupied territories will produce ample opportunity to rig things.

This produces a probability of (0,14*0,05)=0,0133 of Putin not winning the elections.

Odds for 2.

By eye balling mortality statistics for Russian men - and picking a younger age bracket for Putin! - I estimate his chance of dying in the next five years to be 5%.

There's still 76 days remaining, so the odds are (76/1825)*5%=0.0021

Odds for 3.

There have been 2 events in the Russian Federation which could be construed as a coup: 1993 constitutional crisis and the Prighozin mutiny in 2023. Both events led to the president of the Russian Federation remaining in place.

The odds of such an event occurring is therefore once every 5877 days, or aprox. once every 16 years. The odds that something like that will happen in the next 76 days is therefore 0.013

Based on lazily pulling a figure from Powell & Thyne (2011) I estimate a 33,3% chance that a coup in Russia (Europe) succeeds.

I estimate the odds that Putin is removed from presidency by a coup to be 33.3%*0.013=0.0043

Summing the odds I get to a probability 0.0133+0.0021+0.0043 = 0.0197