Forecasted Questions
In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 02:48PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 02:48PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 24% | -20% | -3% |
| No | 96% | Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 76% | +20% | +3% |