0.000008
Relative Brier Score
1
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
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Why do you think you're right?
There have been no recent reports of civil unrest in Iran or Ayatollah Khamenei's ill health. Multiple previous reports that Ayatollah Khamenei was in ill health have proven false, or at least insufficient to see him removed from power. Nothing presently suggests that Ayatollah Khamenei will be removed from power in the next two weeks.
Why might you be wrong?
There are two weeks left on this prediction. While improbable, it is not impossible that Ayatollah Khamenei is killed by illness (particularly given his advanced age) or accident during that time.