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Luke

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Predictive modeler with 20 years of experience in insurance. Currently trading options.

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2021 Season Stats

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
Gaza war doesn't seem be likely to resolve quickly.  Houthi's show no sign of slowing down.  Suez Canal was closed for 7 years in the past.  Even if the Houthi's slow down, take some time to trust it.  As long as everyone is diverting oil prices will rise and offset the extra cost of transportation.
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Why might you be wrong?
Somehow the U.S. is able to take out the Houthi's.  Either militarily or through diplomacy.
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New Prediction

Four main ways he could no longer be president.  Dies of natural causes, assassinated, Loses the election or steps down.  Baseline expectations of these happening almost zero.  Some are elevated because of the war.

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