Probably

There will be some volatility in pricing but, in general, markets have already priced much of that on the negative side but not so much on the positive side. Countries are restocking oil reserves at the moment but would ease that purchasing if prices rose sharply. Chinese demand will be impacted by slowing growth and increased EV penetration. Same for Europe (just to a lessor degree)

There is no alternative to Putin unless he steps aside or is forced out. That would require a dramatic deterioration in the Ukraine war. As the war is currently quite slow moving (and any collapse more likely on the Ukraine side) it seems unlikely in the timeframe.