I took the general N months he has been in office and not kicked out with is 144. used (1/144)-2=2.006944 * N months to go (2.5) = 5 % - the fact that approval rating are at highs /2 = 2.5. Plus he has been reelected after losing an election before - 0.5. = ~2% chance he will not cease to be the president.
-0.000096
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Comment deleted on Apr 07, 2024 04:42PM UTC
Why might you be wrong?
Comment deleted on Apr 07, 2024 04:42PM UTC