Confirmed previous forecast
-0.003125
Relative Brier Score
3
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0
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No forecasts in the past 3 months
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
81%
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Less than $90
15%
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More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
4%
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More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
0%
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More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
0%
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More than or equal to $120
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Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
Watched interview with @Tucker Carlson and I did not see any indication of medical issue or mental issue affecting him that would manifest within a few months. Political opponents continue to die in jail, aircraft crashes etc. There is no effective opposition to his rule globally.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Price of Brett Crude is mid 70's currently, most major shocks to oil price increases are already for seen. I believe the price of oil will be well above $100/barrel within decade but it will be slow and steady rise over the short term.
Why might you be wrong?
Black swan event like the US National Petroleum Reserve required to be refilled immediately.