There are 2 possibilities in which Putin is no longer president: coup, or failure to win the election. Coup is judged as unlikely barring a complete failure in Ukraine resulting in invasion of Russian territory, given Prighozin's failed march, where expected support failed to materialize. Given extreme popular support even after numerous incidents including but not limited to the loss of the flagship of the Russian navy, election failure is again deemed as impossible barring a complete failure. Given the disparity between the two forces, it is inevitable that Russia will eventually occupy the majority of Ukrainian territory if it so desires, unless western allies are suddenly going to become willing to send their own soldiers to fight in the war. The existence of any Ukrainian resistance cells in the aftermath is immaterial to perceived success, and thus Putin's popularity.
No reasonable path towards Putin not being re-elected possible from publicly available data. Give probab
Why do you think you're right?
1) Security concerns by the US govt. force the shutdown of the laboratory. Staff will either be relocated to NA if possible, or let go.
2) Biden attempts to appear to be more "tough on china" than Trump to attempt to gain voters, and the Msoft laboratory is somehow brought into public consciousness
3) There is already an attempt to move critical industries like chip manufacturing back towards the US from Taiwan. It is unlikely exceptions will be made for AI research given the perceived criticality.
4) The lab may be seized by the Chinese government through various means.
Why might you be wrong?
1) Taking a tough stance against China may not become a major political issue in the US, in which case the status quo may continue as-is.
2) With the top experts moved, it may be deemed that the lab is not a critical security risk and ignored by the US govt.
3) China deems the research done by the lab immaterial, and does not attempt to seize it, or deems the escalation too high to tolerate