Twitter, no. Facebook, yes. Zuck is still answering Senate subpoenas and wants to be taken seriously. The 2016 election, easy foreign interference, and the Cambridge Analytica revelation caused one of the biggest stock price drops in Facebook history; therefore, before this upcoming, highly contentious election, Zuckerberg will be looking to backstop the stock by improving consumer confidence in the validity of the info on Facebook.
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
Yes
20%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It might be a technical limitation. Every professional content writer uses Chat GPT, so how would Facebook train AI to pick out bad actors and not also flag every piece of content. The easy way would be to give sponsored content a pass, but lots of customers would still be tagged. Would Facebook care if their AI tagging system is clumsy? Hm.
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Twitter, no. Facebook, yes
Referring to the possibility of labeling AI-generated text, their president of global affairs recently stated that "this ship has sailed", and that there is currently no viable mechanism to label written text generated by AI tools like ChatGPT; please see https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/118139 below.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
Yes
96%
No
Why do you think you're right?
- Microsoft is a corporation, and corporations don't have the moral backbone to shut themselves out of a market.
- The U.S. gov't is a big customer of Microsoft, and a large IT facility there gives them intelligence boots on the ground.
- The decision to pull key people out of the facility is to hedge their bets: they don't want to shut it down (see #1), but the region is particularly unstable (Russia, Ukraine, North Korea, South Korea Taiwan) -- if China went to war with Taiwan (which they will do when it's convenient), Microsoft would have a hard time getting their people out.
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Why might you be wrong?
- If the U.S. gov't decides that all AI development is too precious to trust on foreign soil, they might require Microsoft to pull out. But there is basically no chance that the legislative bodies (brimming with octogenarians who can't even type) align on a decision like that.
- Again, this depends heavily on China going to war and forcing the U.S.' hand, which might happen if China jumps the gun on Taiwan or North Korea goes nuclear.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
Vladimir is a popular dictator, which means, politically, he can rig the system in his favor and his supporters will allow him to retain power. The death (or murder) of Navalny won't affect that popularity -- Putin has been torturing the man for over a decade); even the war in Ukraine, though growing unpopular, is probably viewed in Russia comparable to the U.S.' war in Iraq: costly and impractical, but, according to the state, ideologically justified.
The only thing that will make Putin step down is an acute illness, which, at his age, is bound to happen sooner or later. That's why I peg it at 5% -- he looks fine in recent interviews, and May 2024 is pretty close.
Files
With Trump in power, North Korea will not fear retributive action or intervention from the united states.