The world hates Isreal, they have wrought a holocaust on Palistine, they are a pariah
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New Prediction
New Badge
Star Commenter - Mar 2024
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Kuwait
0%
Oman
0%
Qatar
0%
Saudi Arabia
0%
Tunisia
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Can't see any nation normalizing relations
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
100%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
0%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Why do you think you're right?
The Iranians have been screwed over by Trump and will not have an incentive to follow through in commitment
Files
Why might you be wrong?
They may actually increase stockpile vs meeting full target
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 3, 2024 02:03AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
Mar 3, 2024 to Sep 3, 2024
99%
No
Mar 3, 2024 to Sep 3, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
There is little upside for Iran. The damage will be negligible to overall US posture
Files
Why might you be wrong?
May be a retaliation strike for a significant American action like Solimani execution
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 3, 2024 12:37AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
30%
Yes
Mar 3, 2024 to Sep 3, 2024
70%
No
Mar 3, 2024 to Sep 3, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
The oppressive conditions have only got worse and the opposition will recognize the governments weakness with ongoing Isreal war
Files
Why might you be wrong?
They population has become numb after last significant protests that did not yield any change
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 3, 2024 12:33AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Mar 3, 2024 to Sep 3, 2024
100%
No
Mar 3, 2024 to Sep 3, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
Isreal has set itself to be the pariah state for a generation.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Some major economic package Isreal offers to a Muslim country
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 3, 2024 12:31AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
70%
Yes
Mar 3, 2024 to Apr 3, 2024
30%
No
Mar 3, 2024 to Apr 3, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
There is little upside to not having an official government representative. Recalling an ambassador is a easy, non escalated show of disapproval.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Another Iranian attack
Files
New Badge
Why do you think you're right?
The costs and lasting damage to China's economy will be devastating. Much more to gain in domestic support by Sabre rattling. The entire world order will collapse if China invades, they are a trading partner to far too many US aligned countries.
Why might you be wrong?
Xi feels he's lost control of his government and populous so sees war as last best option to retain power (like Netanyahu).