AlgoRhymer

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0.169913

Relative Brier Score

26

Forecasts

2

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 26 26 26
Comments 0 0 7 7 7
Questions Forecasted 0 0 7 7 7
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 2 2 2
 Definitions
New Prediction

Updating to follow concensus

Files
PeterStamp
made a comment:
The consensus is the other way around....
Files
New Prediction
New Prediction
AlgoRhymer
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on May 16, 2024 08:35AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
17% (-13%)
Yes
Apr 16, 2024 to Oct 16, 2024
83% (+13%)
No
Apr 16, 2024 to Oct 16, 2024

update


Files
New Prediction
AlgoRhymer
made their 4th forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on May 16, 2024 08:34AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5% (0%)
Yes
Apr 16, 2024 to Oct 16, 2024
95% (0%)
No
Apr 16, 2024 to Oct 16, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
AlgoRhymer
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction

Slight increase in chance due to USVP stating openly that she wishes there to be an immediate stop to the fighting.

Files
New Badge
AlgoRhymer
earned a new badge:

Star Commenter - Feb 2024

Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
AlgoRhymer
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Mar 27, 2024 10:44AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
30% (+25%)
Yes
Feb 27, 2024 to Aug 27, 2024
70% (-25%)
No
Feb 27, 2024 to Aug 27, 2024
Why do you think you're right?

Iranian elections are in March. There may be protests after the results are cast.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

The Iranian government might be able to supress any unrest by turning off the internet and/or mobile network - making organised protest difficult to organise.

Files
Files
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