RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM	By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?	-0.002882
Aug 28, 2024 08:00PM	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 29, 2024 and Aug 28, 2024)	-0.000187
Jul 6, 2024 04:00PM	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 6, 2024 and Jul 6, 2024)	-0.00059
Jul 2, 2024 04:00PM	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 2, 2024 and Jul 2, 2024)	0.0
Jun 2, 2024 04:00PM	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 2, 2024 and Jun 2, 2024)	0.0
May 2, 2024 04:00PM	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 2, 2024 and May 2, 2024)	-0.000113
May 1, 2024 04:01AM	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?	-0.00386
Apr 6, 2024 04:00PM	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 6, 2024 and Apr 6, 2024)	-0.000532
Apr 2, 2024 04:00PM	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 2, 2024 and Apr 2, 2024)	-0.0002
Apr 1, 2024 04:00AM	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 20, 2024 and Apr 1, 2024)	0.0
Mar 20, 2024 08:00PM	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 20, 2024 and Mar 20, 2024)	0.0
Mar 6, 2024 04:00PM	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 6, 2024 and Mar 6, 2024)	-0.000124
Mar 3, 2024 05:00PM	Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election?	0.03912
Mar 2, 2024 04:00PM	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 2, 2024 and Mar 2, 2024)	-0.0002
Feb 20, 2024 08:00PM	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 20, 2024 and Feb 20, 2024)	0.0
Feb 2, 2024 04:00PM	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 2, 2024 and Feb 2, 2024)	-0.000019
Feb 1, 2024 05:00AM	Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023?	-0.000205
Jan 20, 2024 08:00PM	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 20, 2023 and Jan 20, 2024)	0.0
Jan 19, 2024 03:26PM	Will a moon mission land safely on the moon between 1 September 2023 and 31 May 2024, inclusive?	-0.005372
Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM	By 31 December 2023, will IBM Quantum Computing offer access to a quantum computing system with 1,000 or more qubits?	0.66868

Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

-0.002882

Aug 28, 2024 08:00PM

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 29, 2024 and Aug 28, 2024)

-0.000187

Jul 6, 2024 04:00PM

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 6, 2024 and Jul 6, 2024)

-0.00059

Jul 2, 2024 04:00PM

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 2, 2024 and Jul 2, 2024)

0.0