trebuchet

I think Putin will cease to be President once his death is announced, so my prediction is based on the possibility of this outcome. A visual assessment suggests he is not in a state of ill-health. I believe he will have access to better than average healthcare, so comparison to mortality statistics in Russia aren't that helpful to predict this. But, this outcome still must be considered as a possibility; and a rapid decline in health is possible, considering that he is of an older age, and facing multiple stressors which could contribute to this outcome.

I have considered:

• Coup (e.g. Wagner Group) - though i note there may have been other unsuccessful attempts that were non-publicized, and the frequency of these attempts is an unknown factor
  
• Multiple catastrophic war-related decisions in quick succession, leading to 'peaceful' internal political reshuffle. I don't think the moving pieces of war are moving quickly enough at pr