| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
To me, it's between 0 and 1, but leaning towards 0
Shutting the lab this year would mean leaving (most of) the top AI talent behind. Relocating researches slowly and "quietly" is the only option for Microsoft to keep them without severing its relationship with the CCP
Even if Trump is elected, Microsoft is unlikely to make any moves to "please" him, particularly, before the inauguration.
There could be further restrictions that force Microsoft to close its lab, but it is highly unlikely to happen this year
I wish I could choose 0.0001%
1. No real political threat
2. Extremely low probability of death/murder until May 1
- Israel-Hamas war will not end by March 31
- The US is too afraid to escalate the conflict, so won't act decisively
- Even if the conflict subsides, BP and Shell will remain concerned about tail risks