-0.000046
Relative Brier Score
1
Forecasts
0
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No forecasts in the past 3 months
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There are no immediate obvious threats to his power, and no apparent serious health risks. There is basically 0% chance that he will step down voluntarily in the time frame (no good reason to, and no good exit options), meaning the only way he will leave is via a coup-ish event, or death. Death: Let's assume US annual probabilities of death are roughly equal to Putin's (Russian life expectancy is shorter than US, but Putin is probably healthier than the average Russian and possibly than the average American). Annual probability of death for a 71 year old (Putin's age) is ~2.8,% so ~0.7% for 3 months. Coup-ish: since the collapse of the USSR in 1991 (~32 years) there have been two known coup-ish events, in 1993 and 2023. This suggests an annual base rate of 2/32= ~6%. For three months this means ~1.5%. 1.5%+07% = 2.2%, round down to 2%