Pete-Zupan

Pete Zupan
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-0.035622

Relative Brier Score

3

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0

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Current tensions, actions, and attitudes point to a continuation of the status quo. With Iranian backed militias continuing to attack targets, and the continued Israeli actions in Palestine, there doesn't seem to be an end in sight.  

I believe Israel is evaluating means and methods of further degrading Iranian capabilities. Mossad and similar entities have an incentive to gain a PR win in response to the Oct 7th failures, and increasing aggression targeted at critical infrastructure that can be (even remotely) tied to Iranian nuclear programs may serve that purpose.  

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Why might you be wrong?

The cyber attack may go unreported and/or unclaimed by the perpetrators.

Alternatively, should escalation in a kinetic theatre prove sufficient for ending the current war, and a meaningful ceasefire or detente happen, I don't believe anti-Iranian actors would necessarily re-aggravate the situation, though they certainly could.  

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

A formal announcement from MSFT would do more harm than good for all. Allowing CCP to save face by quietly relocating sensitive projects makes more sense strategically. 

It is unclear what MSFT stands to gain from such a pronouncement. Turning it into a zombie lab seems much more reasonable, should any event transpire that required MSFT to disengage technologically from the region. 

 

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
This would most likely be the mark of an opening salvo of interstate competition, and I don't believe it's in anyone's interest to do so yet. Assigning 1% probability to account for natural disaster possibility.  
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Why might you be wrong?

I don't fully understand the picture of Taiwanese labor sentiment / 

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