-0.000001
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Political power is a function of whether there is credible political opposition that is able to appear on the ballot and will not be diminished by the quantity or severity of political protests. Putin's control of the political party and historical willingness to eliminate political opposition makes it unlikely that there will be a candidate able to survive to the election. The only scenario in which I see Putin ceasing to be president before 1 May 2024 is in the case of assassination.