RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 02, 2024 09:22PM UTC
(6 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	35%	44%	-9%	-23%
No	65%	56%	+9%	+23%

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(12 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 02, 2024 10:01PM UTC
(6 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	6%	+4%	-8%
No	90%	94%	-4%	+8%

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 03, 2024 10:26PM UTC
(6 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	25%	5%	+20%	-2%
No	75%	95%	-20%	+2%

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 17, 2024 09:03PM UTC
(6 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	1%	+1%	-3%
No	98%	99%	-1%	+3%

siayinshen