There doesn't appear to be a single attack throughout the conflict resulting in 100 or more injuries or fatalities. I think we will see closer to 30 casualties in the time frame of the question.
0.006115
Relative Brier Score
7
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
98%
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
77%
(0%)
Yes
23%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
I think this will be avoided at all costs as there are just too many major corporate and geo-political stakeholders to allow something like this to occur outside of some natural disaster scenario.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
77%
Yes
23%
No
With recent examples of this having happened, and tensions showing no end in sight between Israel and Iran, it's pretty likely an impactful event will occur well within the next year.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-98%)
Yes
With the limited time remaining on this forecast, and the seemingly limited impact of the recent questionable death of Navalny, I see no path resulting in Putin ceasing to be the president before May 1, 2024.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
Yes
With the limited time remaining on this forecast, and the seemingly limited impact of the recent questionable death of Navalny, I see no path resulting in Putin ceasing to be the president before May 1, 2024.
Files
Not enough time left at this point to be in the cards.