There could be a demand crash but I can’t imagine a demand spike. There could be a supply crash due to conflict or natural disaster but it seems very unlikely with the time remaining.
-0.045783
Relative Brier Score
4
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
What will be the highest price per barrel of Brent crude oil between 4 December 2023 and 31 March 2024?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
96%
Less than $90
2%
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
1%
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
0%
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
1%
More than or equal to $120
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 13, 2024 01:23AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Mar 13, 2024 to Sep 13, 2024
100%
No
Mar 13, 2024 to Sep 13, 2024
Any country with any appetite to do this did it already in the past few years. With the situation in Gaza it is unthinkable that any country would do this now.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
97%
No
Why do you think you're right?
1. I don’t think the technology to do this will exists in a form that is reliable enough for this use case and I only see this becoming a more challenging problem in the future. 2. I don’t see much upside for these platforms to do this but I see a lot of downside risk. I don’t see what incentive there would be to do this. 3. I am not aware of any significant public demand for such a feature.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Twitter might do it because Elon Musk is unpredictable.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
I don’t think it is plausible for him to be removed from power other than dying, and there is no evidence I am aware of that he is sick or otherwise in danger. But it’s always possible for someone to die but I think for Putin it is less than 1%.
Files