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New Prediction
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
1. Putin is cunning state actor, with significant experience with statecraft
2. Putin is currently, and has already, purged any and all significant opposition voices
3. Though Putin's approach to winning may find disagreement among the oligarch class, few if any oligarchs actually disagree with Putin's calculation that the Ukraine invasion was the right thing to do for Russia
4. Those within the Russian Federation are, in fact, not suffering significantly (measured by Russian standards of suffering), and will continue to support the war
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Why might you be wrong?
1. Putin dies of disease, or natural causes
2. Ukraine, or an ally, successfully assassinates Putin
3. Navalny's widow is able to act as a rallying point for Russians, particularly Russian mothers, and they stage viral opposition to Putin. This just might be the kind of thing that would shake the status quo
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