highly likely as Putin is expansionist Estonia and Latvia likely and lithuania is blocked by the two so will requite significant force
-0.022129
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
55%
Estonia
55%
Latvia
20%
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
May not win in Ukraine and be militarily crippled
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Why do you think you're right?
new weapons shipments with air defence makes it unlikely
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Russia is pushing for gains at the moment aggressively making for an unpredictable situation
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Kuwait
1%
(0%)
Oman
0%
(0%)
Qatar
5%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
80%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Houthi attacks are still consistent
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Microsoft has a strong presence in china with 21vianet, unlikely to leave
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Kuwait
1%
Oman
0%
Qatar
5%
Saudi Arabia
0%
Tunisia
Why do you think you're right?
all middle east muslim countries, I believe saudi might as they're a middle man for relations
Files
Why might you be wrong?
there might be a big political shift caused by israel/gaza war and creates an unexpected turn
Files
Why do you think you're right?
strong gains in Kharkiv at the moment
Why might you be wrong?
West seems to have reached consensus on arms shipments and is slowing russia