CGW369

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-0.031885

Relative Brier Score

3

Forecasts

0

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No forecasts in the past 3 months
 

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 Definitions
New Prediction

Right now it is impossible to accurately discern text generated by AI. Real users could also use AI to correct or enhance their texts. Would led to many false positives and complains.

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

China will not invade Taiwan this month, march is some of the best weather so no hurricanes. Security is probably the highest in world in TSMC so probably no chance of cyberattack. Sales are exploding so probably everything working in hightened level of operation.

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Why might you be wrong?

Only an earthquake could shut down the plant for more than a day. But Taiwan is used to small quakes so would need to be a pretty big one, once in a decade type.

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My First Question

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New Prediction

He will not renounce, he will certainly win the election. Only a terrorist attack could prevent him from being president. Say there is a 50% chance of death in 3 years of terrorist efforts, thats close to 1%.

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