Russia will not want to completely deplete their gold reserves, which are the current method of payment for IR ballistic missiles and drones. Military tech transfer is a logical option. Open sources support this claim
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
S-400 or S-500 missile system
65%
Su-35 fighter jets
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 13, 2024 09:18AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
Yes
Mar 13, 2024 to Sep 13, 2024
85%
No
Mar 13, 2024 to Sep 13, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
Although the ISR-PAL conflict has stoked tensions in the region, there are multiple reports of second-track negotiations to recognise and normalise relations with ISR.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
This would not be popular with the populace.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
Barring a severe health emergency, the likelihood of which is low due to his extensive medical team, all publicly available sources and statements point to VVP aiming to keep the post of the President of the RF until at least 2030.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
There is a long-standing faction in the current coalition in ISR who sees war with Hezbollah as a necessary step to protect Israel from future surprise attacks. The war with Hamas is already ongoing and it would make sense in their view to make use of the momentum.
Why might you be wrong?
Netanyahu might be deposed, pressured to stand down etc.