Already happened?
-0.000122
Relative Brier Score
5
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
2023 Q2
0%
2023 Q3
0%
2023 Q4
1%
2024 Q1
1%
2024 Q2
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jun 13, 2024 11:56PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
Yes
Mar 13, 2024 to Mar 13, 2025
90%
No
Mar 13, 2024 to Mar 13, 2025
As Tolstoy once said: "War: what is it good for?"
Files
New Prediction
Webb on a roll with this.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Slider doesn't go granular enough. 1 in 100 chance is way too high. He would have to drop dead for this to happen.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
Meant to say zero