Microsoft earns a lot of money from defense contracts so US has big leverage on them, regardless of the political rulings. The economic war between US and China seems to intensify and there are few signs it will diminish in the next months. Looking at the latest visit by Janet Yellen and the messages sent by US to China, it doesn't seem like US wants to be "nice". On top of that, AI Research will likely work on AI related projects which have huge risks because of the data being used to train AI. There are reasonable concerns in the industry that AI might reveal military/state secrets which complicate things even more.
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Probability
Answer
90%
(+10%)
Yes
10%
(-10%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
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Why might you be wrong?
I don't think I'm wrong, but I leave 10% to "No" because the date might be postponed by the elections that happen this year in the US.
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Probability
Answer
80%
Yes
20%
No
Why do you think you're right?
US seems to intensify their efforts to stop China from advancing their AI capabilities. Microsoft Research functions in China, with Chinese researchers and CCP supervision, which makes it a target for a closure. Microsoft will not risk their contracts with US institutions for potential revenue from China coming from AI.
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Why might you be wrong?
The Research Lab seems to do mostly theoretical research and they are usually not focused on results in the AGI space.
Microsoft might refocus the research lab to work on topics that while interesting, might not provide economic advantage - research into literary translation from classic Chinese, etc.
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Russia needs to protect its western borders with NATO. It would not make sense for them to expand towards Kazakhstan, or towards the Caucasus mountains where it might create more problems by antagonizing Chechnya and Dagestan.
Moldova, even if useless strategically - they will reach a NATO boarder which will be consolidated quickly, or possibly even get Romania to get involved to help Moldova, it might be an option to constrain Ukraine from two sides. It is very unlikely because Ukraine will need to fall before that could happen. Will reanalyze if the southern part of Ukraine will fall to the Russians, which doesn't seem likely at the moment.