WeekendWarrior

Dysprosium is important enough to have been identified by the US DOE as the most critical element for clean technology, meaning demand from manufacturers of electric cars and related products will put upward pressure on price. It is also heavily used in the heath technology applications, and is an important element in nuclear reactors. China currently produces 90% of the element, and it's government has stated its goal is to use its position as a rare earth supplier as a source of global power.

However, Chinese supply is predicted to remain constant by the European Commission, even as demand increases, with countries like Canada filling the gap for increased demand. This should ease pressure on the market, which grew at only 5.2% last year and is predicted to grow linearly even as demand for greener technology increases.

Finally, countries have more the 44kT of reserve capacity, indicating that a shock would not send prices skyrocketing beyond their current state. Many companies, like Ford and BMW, have been increasing their supplies for years in anticipation of higher need for the development of electric cars.

Brent is currently $85 per barrel. The dollar will remain strong through the month due to expected higher interest rates because of persistent moderate inflation, causing the price of Brent to be suppressed in dollar denominated terms. Russia will remain preoccupied with their terrorist attack and the Ukraine war, OPEC will not meet again to address supply before March 31st, and no major statements from the US that could move the Brent market are looming. Barring a catastrophe, the price will not move above $90, which it last hit in 2022.

Khamenei is about to turn 85. An American male age 85 has a roughly 11% chance of dying within a year. While obviously not American, Khamenei's health is a national priority, and will be treated as such. So, American probabilities are a reasonable baseline. Domestic unrest is obvious, but manageable for a country that is used to unrest, posing no real threat. Inflation is high at 35.8%, but that is a reduction and GDP growth remain solid. No economic indicators presage a crisis, and most are trending down. The war in Gaza poses limited risk if Hezbollah were to engage heavily, but even that risk poses little threat to Khamenei himself, and nothing this Huthis are doing poses a large direct threat of regime change. American sanctions have not changed recently and will not change during a year of divided government and a presidential election. Neither side would want to give the other a win. Therefore, age is the only significant factor at 10%, plus 2% risk of domestic upheaval given the political circumstances related to their election; 1% risk from foreign influence; and 1% risk from Revolutionary Guard coup.

Putin has consolidated enough control of the military to prevent a coup, and that is the only way he would no longer be president on 1 May other than his death. At his age, the probability of death is not zero, but so slight as to barely register.