continuation of trend without prospect of change inducing events.
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New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jun 14, 2024 09:45PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Mar 14, 2024 to Sep 14, 2024
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
IAEA has limited access, particularly for deployed warheads where this material almost immediately end up.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
they never close.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
100%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Continuation of the trend and too close to new US admin.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Kuwait
0%
Oman
0%
Qatar
0%
Saudi Arabia
0%
Tunisia
All this will require resolution peace in Israel and months/years of rehabilitation, post US election.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 14, 2024 09:17PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Mar 14, 2024 to Sep 14, 2024
100%
No
Mar 14, 2024 to Sep 14, 2024
The US has nukes. Iran and US both have intermediaries.
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?
This forecast expired on Jun 14, 2024 09:17PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Mar 14, 2024 to Sep 14, 2024
100%
No
Mar 14, 2024 to Sep 14, 2024
Israel has 100s of nukes.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jun 14, 2024 09:15PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Mar 14, 2024 to Mar 14, 2025
100%
No
Mar 14, 2024 to Mar 14, 2025
Similar to US, Iran can continue undeclared ops including "lethal-aid", intermediaries, interventions, etc without bad press of "war."
Files
No war with china. No invasion of Taiwan. Few or no competing new fabs within the timeframe.