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Reasons for Putin not being President in May 2024 and their probability:
- Putin is dead by natural causes: 0.5%. Putin is 71 yo in a country with a life expectancy of 71.4 y and he has access to the best health care in the country
- Putin is dead by assassination: 0.5%
- Putin looses the election in March and gets out: 2%
- Despite winning the election, there is a coup: 1%