I do not see any reasons for Russia to invade Kazakhstan. Georgian goverment is pro-Russian, thus, might ask for a support in case Georgian opposition goes on streets after elections in October, 2024.
-0.000038
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New Prediction
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
10%
Moldova
5%
Armenia
10%
Georgia
0%
Kazakhstan
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Estonia
0%
Latvia
0%
Lithuania
Not enough resources to confront NATO countries
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New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
Making my first forecast!
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