The number of confirmed habitable exoplanets has increased significantly making it much more likely that we will reach 5 for 2024.
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Definitions |

New Prediction

New Prediction
Benjamin-Sturgeon
quit this question on Jul 31, 2024 02:00AM
Probability
Answer
79%
(+23%)
Yes
21%
(-23%)
No
Files

New Prediction
I think given that no exoplanets have been added in 2024 so far is not a good sign, and given that the JWST has not been meaningfully contributing to the search for exoplanets means that we are mostly relying on older observatories to provide new discoveries.
Files
They have added exoplanets in 2024 I believe. The question resolution criteria lists 69 at time of question launch, and the resolution source lists 70.
Files

New Badge


My First Question
Congratulations on making your first forecast!
Very few habitable planets have been found so far and itβs unlikely for enough to be discovered in time.