No. Partisanship in the election year will prevent Republicans and Democrats from moving forward.
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New Prediction
Will the U.S. Congress pass a military aid package supporting Ukraine worth at least $10 billion before 1 May 2024?
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Probability
Answer
15%
Yes
85%
No
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 15, 2024 12:15AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
90%
Yes
Apr 15, 2024 to Apr 15, 2025
10%
No
Apr 15, 2024 to Apr 15, 2025
Iran has positioned itself as a combatant in the region. They have attacked Israel and are making rumblings of attacking other nations in the region. It is almost certain, under the cry of “Allah-uah Ackbar” they will attack elsewhere.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
Yes
While Putin’s health is questionable, his grip on power is secure. No foreseeable threats exist on the horizon that will undo Putin’s regime between now and May 1. Particularly, it’s more likely his power is more secure given the situation with Iran.
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