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Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 23, 2025 05:00PM	In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 7, 2024 and Jan 23, 2025)	-0.003653
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM	By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?	0.587516
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM	Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?	-0.011867