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TrishBytes
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Formerly on Foretell
Global AI Race: Talent, Research, and Tech
How Will the U.S. Technology Sector Develop in the Coming Years?
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International Diplomacy & Conflict
Iran: Threats & Influence
Issue Campaign: U.S. Department of Defense - Silicon Valley Relationship
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The Water Cooler
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metric-question
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Mission: AI Advancement
Mission: Diplomacy
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semiconductors
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Date Ended
Question
Relative Brier Score
Feb 14, 2025 06:00PM
What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?
-0.012821
Jan 31, 2025 05:00AM
Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?
0.001748
Jan 23, 2025 05:00PM
In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 7, 2024 and Jan 23, 2025)
0.221337
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
0.168183
Dec 1, 2024 05:01AM
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
-0.166317
Aug 2, 2024 05:29AM
Will Iran be impacted by a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure between 27 February 2024 and 1 March 2025?
0.301857
Jul 18, 2024 04:00AM
For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?
-0.00003
Jul 6, 2024 04:00PM
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 6, 2024 and Jul 6, 2024)
0.00474
Jul 6, 2024 04:00PM
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 6, 2024 and Jul 6, 2024)
0.00084
Jul 1, 2024 04:01PM
Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?
0.000298
Jun 6, 2024 04:00PM
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 6, 2024 and Jun 6, 2024)
0.003948
Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
0.000141
Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
-0.192837
May 6, 2024 04:00PM
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 6, 2024 and May 6, 2024)
0.001387
May 1, 2024 04:01AM
Will the Global Protest Tracker record a significant antigovernment protest involving 10,000 or more participants in Thailand between April 2023 and April 2024?
0.0
Apr 6, 2024 04:00PM
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 6, 2024 and Apr 6, 2024)
0.004277
Apr 1, 2024 04:00AM
Will any TSMC fab in Taiwan be shut down for at least one day because of a non-scheduled emergency by 31 March 2024?
-0.003377
Mar 20, 2024 08:00PM
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 20, 2024 and Mar 20, 2024)
0.0
Mar 6, 2024 04:00PM
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 6, 2024 and Mar 6, 2024)
0.001397
Mar 3, 2024 05:00PM
Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election?
-0.002506
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❤️
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😊
:blush:
😁
:grin:
👍
:+1:
☺️
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😔
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😄
:smile:
😭
:sob:
💋
:kiss:
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:unamused:
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:stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:
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😌
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😀
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:yum:
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