RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Nov 18, 2023 05:00PM UTC	Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023?	0.110084
Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?	0.0
Aug 28, 2023 05:09PM UTC	What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2022 (October 2021 through September 2022)?	-0.178283
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in 2022?	-0.021745
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC	What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?	0.033712
Apr 20, 2023 03:23PM UTC	What percentage of contributions to Github's "very high impact" AI projects will be from China in 2022?	-0.063728
Apr 20, 2023 03:20PM UTC	How many European Union countries will have an AI skill migration greater than 2 per 10,000 in 2022?	-0.105008
Apr 05, 2023 07:15PM UTC	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023?	-0.069442
Feb 01, 2023 06:46PM UTC	Will the European Union’s economic sanctions on Russia expire or be revoked for whole sectors or industries by 31 January 2023?	0.0
Jan 18, 2023 05:00AM UTC	How many integrated circuit (IC) units will China produce in 2022?	-0.087551
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	By 31 December 2022, will the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company announce plans to build a semiconductor fab in Europe?	0.108218
Jan 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022?	-0.002076
Dec 29, 2022 05:00AM UTC	In the next six months, will U.S. and China announce the establishment of an ongoing bilateral dialog mechanism that includes discussions of emerging technologies? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 31, 2022 and Jun 29, 2022)	-0.004464
Dec 22, 2022 08:51PM UTC	How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?	-0.082828
Nov 28, 2022 03:46PM UTC	Will Jair Bolsonaro formally contest the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election by 31 December 2022?	0.042535
Jul 28, 2022 07:10PM UTC	Will the U.S. Congress pass a tax credit for semiconductor manufacturing or design before 1 January 2023?	0.238716
Jul 23, 2022 04:17PM UTC	Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in the next four quarters? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 28, 2021 and Jun 1, 2022)	0.203604
May 31, 2022 03:08PM UTC	Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022?	0.535017
May 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC	What will the 'Big 5' (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft) tech companies' average reputation ranking be in the 2022 Axios Harris poll?	0.283318
Apr 28, 2022 04:00AM UTC	What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?	-0.211216

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