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Forecasted Questions

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 19, 2024 05:05PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 1%
No 98% 99%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2024 01:31PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 0%
No 99% 100%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2024 01:31PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 1% 1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 99% 99%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2024 01:31PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 98% 97%
No 2% 3%

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2024 01:33PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana 1% 3%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells 1% 5%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo 1% 1%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo 0% 1%

What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2024 08:15PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 24% 0% 0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26% 1% 1%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28% 21% 4%
More than or equal to 28% 78% 94%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(9 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2024 08:16PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 67% 8%
No 33% 92%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2024 06:34PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kuwait 0% 1%
Oman 0% 2%
Qatar 0% 1%
Saudi Arabia 0% 2%
Tunisia 0% 1%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2024 06:35PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Aug 30, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2024 06:35PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 0% 2%
Latvia 0% 1%
Lithuania 0% 2%
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