Forecasted Questions
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 19, 2024 05:05PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Aug 19, 2024 05:05PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
No | 98% | 99% | -1% | +0% |
Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2024 01:31PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Aug 29, 2024 01:31PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 0% | +1% | +0% |
No | 99% | 100% | -1% | +0% |
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2024 01:31PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Aug 29, 2024 01:31PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) | 1% | 1% | +0% | -1% |
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) | 99% | 99% | 0% | +1% |
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2024 01:31PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Aug 29, 2024 01:31PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 98% | 97% | +1% | +3% |
No | 2% | 3% | -1% | -3% |
Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2024 01:33PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Aug 29, 2024 01:33PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells | 1% | 4% | -3% | -1% |
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2024 08:15PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Aug 29, 2024 08:15PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 24% | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26% | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28% | 21% | 6% | +15% | -44% |
More than or equal to 28% | 78% | 92% | -14% | +44% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2024 08:16PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Aug 29, 2024 08:16PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 67% | 11% | +56% | -27% |
No | 33% | 89% | -56% | +27% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2024 06:34PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Aug 30, 2024 06:34PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Kuwait | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Oman | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
Qatar | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Saudi Arabia | 0% | 2% | -2% | -1% |
Tunisia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2024 06:35PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Aug 30, 2024 06:35PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | Aug 30, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2024 06:35PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Aug 30, 2024 06:35PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Estonia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +1% |
Latvia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Lithuania | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |