RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 19, 2024 05:05PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	1%	+1%	+0%
No	98%	99%	-1%	+0%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2024 01:31PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	0%	+1%	+0%
No	99%	100%	-1%	+0%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2024 01:31PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2024 01:31PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	98%	96%	+2%	+2%
No	2%	4%	-2%	-2%

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2024 01:33PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana	1%	3%	-2%	+0%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells	1%	4%	-3%	+0%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2024 08:15PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 24%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%	1%	0%	+1%	-2%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%	21%	22%	-1%	-27%
More than or equal to 28%	78%	77%	+1%	+29%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2024 08:16PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	67%	22%	+45%	-16%
No	33%	78%	-45%	+16%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2024 06:34PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Oman	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Qatar	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Saudi Arabia	0%	3%	-3%	-1%
Tunisia	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2024 06:35PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Aug 30, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025	Nov 30, 2024	0%	+0%	+0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2024 06:35PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	0%	2%	-2%	+1%
Latvia	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Lithuania	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

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