thaisararipe

About:
Show more

No Scores Yet

Relative Brier Score

0

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 2 3 3 3
Comments 0 1 2 2 2
Questions Forecasted 0 2 2 2 2
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 0
 Definitions
New Prediction
thaisararipe
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
76%
Yes
Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025
24%
No
Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

Since the 1990s, China has rapidly transitioned from a manufacturing-driven economy to a major global innovator, especially in fields like telecommunications, high-speed rail, and, more recently, artificial intelligence (AI). With substantial government backing and private sector investment, Chinese companies have achieved technological parity with or even surpassed some Western counterparts in several strategic areas. This pace of development, combined with a focus on AI as a strategic industry, represents a path for China’s LLM efforts to expand rapidly like other areas, and surpass that of the western. 
Looking at the rapid advances in chinese AI research, from companies like Baidu, Alibaba, Zhipu AI, and 01.AI tbat producing increasingly sophisticated models, this could open the way for entering a more competitive stance with the western hemisphere. Additionally, it is important to highlight that China differentiates from other countries thanks in part to both national and institutional support. In this sense, this concentrated funding and support could lead to rapid enhancements in model architecture and data efficiency, contributing to performance that might secure a top-3 spot.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Organizations like OpenAI and Anthropic release frequent updates, often improving performance in ways that set a high bar for competition. Although Chinese tech companies have significant resources, the computational demands to consistently match these updates can be a limiting factor. 

Files
New Badge
thaisararipe
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
thaisararipe
earned a new badge:

My First Question

Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Badge
thaisararipe
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

The Beijing lab is not expected to shut down entirely by the end of 2024 according to most predictions. Although Microsoft is indeed expanding its AI research footprint in other locations, this process will take more time until it comes to the entire shutdown.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

This relocation indicates a strategic move in plan - given the geopolitical context - and there is the possibility of Microsoft sticking to that plan as soon as possible.

Files
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username