One war is more than enough. Israel wants peace.
0.210174
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 18, 2024 05:15PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(-5%)
Yes
Aug 18, 2024 to Aug 18, 2025
90%
(+5%)
No
Aug 18, 2024 to Aug 18, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
They might have to declare war. There might be another attack like October 7 when Hamas attacked Israel.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 13, 2024 01:04PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(-19%)
Yes
Aug 13, 2024 to Feb 13, 2025
99%
(+19%)
No
Aug 13, 2024 to Feb 13, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Too pessimistic.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
China is more aggressive lately.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 29, 2024 08:09PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
Yes
Jul 29, 2024 to Jan 29, 2025
80%
No
Jul 29, 2024 to Jan 29, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
I hope there is not an invasion or a blockade. I have no idea if I am right.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A significant chance I am wrong.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
Trends continue. It is the leader now.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 19, 2024 05:53PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
Yes
Jul 19, 2024 to Jul 19, 2025
85%
No
Jul 19, 2024 to Jul 19, 2025
One war is more than enough. Israel wants peace.
Files
Moving towards consensus