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Forecasted Questions

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 22, 2024 01:20PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 5%
No 100% 95%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 22, 2024 01:28PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Moldova 0% 8%
Armenia 0% 2%
Georgia 0% 4%
Kazakhstan 0% 2%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 22, 2024 01:29PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 0% 2%
Latvia 0% 1%
Lithuania 0% 1%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 22, 2024 01:30PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 1%
No 100% 99%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 22, 2024 01:32PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 0%
No 100% 100%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 23, 2024 11:13PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kharkiv 5% 4%
Kyiv 1% 1%
Odesa 0% 3%
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