Just practicing for now
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5%
Yes
95%
No
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Two possible reasons
1) He dies from natural causes
2) He is forced to leave for political reasons (including being assassinated)
Regarding 1):
Putin is 71 years old.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/probability-of-dying-by-age says that in 2019 worldwide for people 70-74 years old the annual probability of death is 14%.
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html says that for 71 years old American the annual probability of death is 3%.
I have not found this statistics for Russia. Given that Putin probably gets best possible healthcare, I will use average American 3% and lower it to 2%. There are 10 months left till the resolution, so we can as well use 2% and do not multiply it by 10/12
Regarding 2): I just give 2% for unknown black swans
Why might you be wrong?
1) Maybe I missed some open qualified guesses on his health